All Things Census
The Census Bureau today released five sets of population estimates for the nation as of April 1–but not from the soon-to-be-released 2010 Census count. The estimates are based on an alternative measurement technique, called demographic analysis, that agency officials say employs plausible assumptions about population change. The demographic analysis estimates range from a low of 305.7 million to a high of 312.7 million. The first numbers from the 2010 Census, which will include a national population total and state totals for reapportionment purposes, will be released later this month.
At a news conference today, Census Bureau Director Robert Groves said the five different estimates all make “plausible assumptions.” The analysis will be among three major tools used by the bureau to evaluate the quality of the 2010 Census. The other two include quality measures such as mail return rates from the census itself, and a post-census quality-check survey for which results will be released in 2012.
The demographic analysis methodology is based mainly on use of birth, death, immigration and Medicare records since the 2000 Census. For the population under age 65, bureau officials subtracted the number of deaths from the number of births, added in immigration and subtracted emigration. For the population ages 65 and older, the analysis relied mainly on Medicare enrollment data, supplemented by estimates from the Current Population Survey of older Americans not enrolled in Medicare.
The data exercise sounds deceptively simple, but as this technical paper demonstrates, Census Bureau experts had to make numerous choices based on sometimes-incomplete information. The release of five different sets of estimates reflects a lack of certainty about the data on which the estimates were based. Each of the five sets is based on a different estimate of net international migration over the past decade. The lowest and highest estimates also are based on different estimates of births, deaths and the 65-and-older population. The range of the estimates is 7 million people, of which 5 million is due to differing net immigration estimates, especially counts of unauthorized immigrants.
Bureau officials have used this alternative technique for decades to check the quality of the door-to-door census count, and to improve the accuracy of the annual population estimates between census counts. A decade ago, the bureau’s initial total derived by demographic analysis was markedly lower than its 2000 Census count–279.6 million, compared with 281.4 million. A major reason was that demographic analysis had underestimated unauthorized immigration; there also were issues with birth statistics and race classification. For 2010, bureau officials attempted to improve their immigration estimates by analyzing data from the American Community Survey, which went fully operational in mid-decade, and by consulting outside experts.
In addition to the national population totals, the five series of estimates also include numbers for men and women, for each single year of age, for race groups (only black and non-black because of data limitations), and for the Hispanic population under age 20 (again, because of data limitations, the full Hispanic population was not estimated). There are no estimates for states or other geographic units below the national level, again because of limited data.
Although the estimates released today are not 2010 Census numbers, bureau officials will use them to help evaluate the quality of the census count. In particular, after detailed race, age and gender numbers from the census come out in 2011, demographers will examine any patterns of difference between the census counts and demographic analysis estimates to see how both measurements can be improved.
At a news conference, Groves emphasized that the estimates had been developed independently of the 2010 Census counts; the demographic analysis team was “sequestered,” he said, from the work on 2010 Census totals. The demographic analysis released today also was not based on the annual population estimates that use a similar methodology; the last national estimate said that as of July 2009, the U.S. population was 307 million.
This is a major year for census-taking around the world.The five largest nations (China, India, the United States, Indonesia and Brazil) are counting their populations in 2010, as are numerous others. Here are links to some recent census news from other nations:
The Mexican census has produced its first results, a population count of 112.3 million people. the 2000 Census counted 97.4 million people living in Mexico.
According to a report, more than one million Russians refused to participate in that nation’s census. Ecuador required everyone to stay at home on Census Day, and arrested those who did not obey.
Iraq, however, is not among the census-taking nations this year. Its government once again delayed the national population count, which was supposed to take place next week, because of disagreement over how to conduct the census in the nation’s north.
Net migration–the number of people who move into a place minus the number who move out–can reflect local economic conditions, but a new analysis of population loss in rural areas finds that other factors also can play a role. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture researchers, high outmigration tends to be related to quality-of-life considerations in many nonmetropolitan counties–specifically, these counties are “remote, thinly settled, and lacking in scenic appeal for prospective residents or tourists.”
The report from USDA’s Economic Research Service, “Nonmetropolitan Outmigration Counties,” notes that nearly half of the counties outside metropolitan areas have lost population from 1988 to 2008, especially among young people with relatively high education and skill levels. The report used annual migration estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau as a starting point to identify counties that lost population, and added in other demographic, geographic and socioeconomic indicators. The report also cited data from a USDA survey of manufacturers that asked about specific reasons that these employers may avoid outmigration counties.
The decline in marriage rates, changes in children’s living arrangements, rise of cohabitation–as well as how the American public feels about these and other changes in family life–are explored with Census data and a public opinion survey in a new report from the Pew Research Center. The report finds that Americans have mixed feelings of acceptance and unease about the changes they see in society, but are optimistic about the future of marriage and the family.
The report from the center’s Social & Demographic Trends project, “The Decline of Marriage and Rise of New Families,” finds that nearly four-in-ten Americans (39%) say that marriage is becoming obsolete, according to findings of a survey conducted in partnership with TIME. This finding takes place in a demographic context of declining marriage rates: According to Census Bureau data, only 52% of adults ages 18 and older were married in 2008, compared with 72% in 1960. Marriage has declined among all groups, but especially so among Americans on the lower rungs of the socio-economic ladder. Increasingly, a “marriage gap” has emerged in which adults with college educations and good incomes are notably more likely to be married than are adults with less education and lower incomes.
The report presents detailed findings about attitudes of men and women, race and ethnic groups, age groups and people who live in different types of family arrangements. It also analyzes demographic data that illuminate changes in the American family in recent decades.
China is taking its once-a-decade census, sending six million enumerators door-to-door, and will attempt to count people where they actually live, rather than where their households are officially registered. This represents a change from the methodology that has prevailed since the Peoples Republic of China was founded in 1949.
Major challenges during the 10-day enumeration period will include determining China’s true number of migrant workers, who have helped fuel economic growth but who do not necessarily want the central government to know where they live. In an effort to count all children, the government has promised reduced fines for parents who have violated China’s one-child policy if they come clean to census-takers.
Beyond those particular challenges, Chinese officials say they face growing concerns about personal privacy rights, an issue that also hampers census-taking in many other nations. In an attempt to address those concerns, the census form does not ask about income or religion. According to the Associated Press, the names and photos of census-takers are posted on neighborhood bulletin boards to help residents avoid scam artists posing as enumerators. Read more
Imagine that you see two people in the distance walking alongside each other down a busy sidewalk. Maybe they are a couple. Maybe they just happen to be heading in the same direction. In a crowd of people on a city street, it’s hard to tell.
That same challenge arises when researchers look at possible links among social, economic and demographic trends. Two trends are heading in the same direction, but are they related? Correlation, the statisticians frequently warn, is no guarantee of causation.
There is wide interest by researchers and journalists in finding data from the Census Bureau and other sources that could illustrate the impacts of the Great Recession on American life. This posting recounts a recent debate over the strength of potential links between the recent decline in marriage rates and the national economic downturn.
When the Census Bureau released its 2009 American Community Survey estimates Sept. 29, many news accounts focused on showing how the numbers illustrated the impact of the Great Recession. A number of news stories—including those in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Bloomberg news service, Associated Press and AOL news—picked up on findings that for the first time, more 25-to-34-year-olds have never married than are married. Among those ages 18 and older, 52% are married, the lowest proportion since the government began collecting data on this measure more than a century ago. Read more
The total included 2% of households for which forms were received after the April 27 deadline, too late to stop the bureau from sending a census-taker to knock on the door. The 72% mail participation rate achieved before that deadline also matched the 2000 Census rate.
The Census Bureau news release included a statement by agency director Robert Groves that he was very pleased. Data for individual states, counties, cities and neighborhoods are available on the bureau’s website.
The 2010 census is underway in Russia, and experts expect that the results will show the population is smaller than it was during the last count, in 2002. That census counted 145 million people; estimates for the current total are about 140 million to 142 million. The decline has been attributed to a combination of diminished migration, ill health and low birth rates (although government statistics indicate recent upticks in fertility). The census nearly was canceled because of cost considerations.
One challenge for the census is to have a correct count of the estimated 20% of the population who are ethnic minorities. The federal statistics service offers 1,840 possible categories for residents to choose from. To persuade Russians to cooperate with census-takers, the country’s top leaders posed for photographs with enumerators, and President Dmitry Medvedev recounted his own experiences as a census-taker.
Using 2008 American Community Survey data, the Pew Hispanic Center has constructed demographic and socioeconomic profiles of eligible Hispanic voters in 27 states with the largest numbers of them. The state fact sheets include breakdowns by age, gender, educational attainment, marital status, parenthood status, household income and homeownership rate, as well as the shares that are citizens by birth or via naturalization. Comparisons are provided based on all voters in those states, and nationwide.
In addition, the Pew Hispanic Center has published a new interactive feature, called Mapping the Latino Electorate, that includes eligible voter statistics for the 50 states and District of Columbia, as well as Hispanic and overall population and eligible voter statistics for the 435 congressional districts.
Eligible voters are defined as U.S. citizens, ages 18 and older.
Among married couples with their own children under 18 at home, the share with a working wife and unemployed husband went up in 41 states in 2009, compared with the year before, according to a new Census Bureau analysis of data from the American Community Survey. Nationally, the share of married couples with minor children where the wife was employed and the husband was not rose to 3.4% in 2009, compared with 1.8% in 2008.
The Census Bureau analysis links the rise to the Great Recession’s harsher impact on male-dominated industries, such as manufacturing, compared with female-dominated sectors such as health care. It also notes that the number of women older than 25 with advanced degrees (which can buffer against unemployment) rose from 2008 to 2009, while the number of men with advanced degrees did not change. A Pew Research Center report earlier this year reached some similar conclusions about marriage and gender; it found a rising share of U.S.-born women ages 30-44 are more educated and earn more income than their husbands.
The new Census Bureau analysis is among a dozen new ACS briefs released this week that use data from the 2009 survey. The briefs explore themes that include commuting, labor force participation, housing, use of public assistance, immigration, and science and engineering degrees.