All Things Census
At least 10% of the nation’s counties have exceeded their 2000 Census mail participation rates by at least five percentage points, according to a new analysis of 2010 Census response by the Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York Graduate Center. The analysis is based on Census Bureau participation rate data as of April 13.
The analysis also turned up the intriguing pattern that in the nation’s largest cities, the neighborhoods that have surpassed their 2000 participation rates also tend to have high “hard-to-count” scores, meaning that they had housing, demographic and socioeconomic variables correlated with poor response in the 2000 Census. The analysis suggested that this finding could reflect the intensive outreach and advertising campaigns aimed at these areas, or it could reflect their changing demographic characteristics.
Earlier this week, the Census Bureau noted that four states had surpassed their 2000 participation rates. Bureau officials have set a deadline of April 16 for households to mail back their forms in order not to be put on the list for a follow-up visit from a census-taker.
A New York Times/CBS poll of Tea Party supporters finds that this group “actually are just as likely as Americans as a whole to have returned their census forms, though some conservative leaders have urged a boycott.” The survey results show that 97% say they will return their 2010 Census forms or already have; among the total population, 95% say so.
The national survey, conducted April 5-12, included a total sample of 1,580, of whom 881 were Tea Party supporters. According to the survey, 18% of Americans identify themselves as Tea Party supporters.
Maryland has become the first state in the nation to make plans to count prisoners at their last known home addresses, not their prison addresses, for purposes of redrawing federal, state and local legislative districts.
Traditionally, when legislative and congressional districts are redrawn using census data, prisoners are included where they are incarcerated. But some state officials say that gives outsize power to rural areas where many prisons are located, at the expense of urban areas that often are prisoners’ homes.
The Census Bureau announced in February that it would release detailed numbers earlier than usual to give more power to states to use 2010 Census data to exclude prisoners from being counted at their prison locations for redistricting purposes. On Tuesday, Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) signed legislation to count prisoners at their last known home address if they are held in state or federal prisons and were state residents before they were incarcerated.
Realistically, according to this Washington Post story, the law will have the most impact on local and state legislative boundaries because congressional districts are too large to be affected. Baltimore is expected to benefit the most from the change, but Western Maryland is expected to lose clout. Many legislators from rural areas opposed the bill.
The bill was praised in a New York Times editorial and by Prisoners of the Census, a blog run by the Prison Policy Initiative, an organization that has advocated for changing the way prisoners are counted using census data.
A new analysis of 2010 Census participation rates so far has found wide variation from one city to the next in the degree to which race and ethnic characteristics predict response rates.
Nationally, the analysis by the Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York Graduate Center found a consistent association between an area’s race and Hispanic makeup and its response rate so far. But in looking closely at the nation’s 67 largest cities, the analysis found many local exceptions to nationwide patterns.
For example, neighborhoods where a high share of the population is black tend to have below-average shares of households that have mailed back their census forms. That is even more likely in St. Louis and Boston, the analysis found, but the association is relatively weak in Houston and Atlanta, among others. Neighborhoods that are heavily white have above-average participation rates nationally, but in Honolulu, white neighborhoods have lower participation rates.
Nationally, areas with high Hispanic populations have had below-average response rates so far. But in Miami, Newark and New York, three cities with substantial Latino populations, “greater Hispanic populations tended to increase participation rates” at the census-tract, or neighborhood, level, the analysis concludes. Read more
Stories about the 2010 Census account for a growing — albeit small — fraction of U.S. news coverage, according to statistics compiled by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism.
For the week of March 29-April 4, stories about the census filled 2% of the “newshole,” which is the space and time devoted to print, online and broadcast news coverage as tracked by PEJ’s News Coverage Index. The 2010 Census ranked as the 14th largest story last week, a time period that included April 1, Census Day.
The top story last week was coverage of the U.S. economy, which filled 10% of the newshole; some of those stories noted that temporary hiring by the Census Bureau was one reason for recent gains in employment nationwide. In second place last week was the health care bill, at 9%, dropping from 45% the previous week.
The PEJ statistics track coverage of the 2010 Census each week starting Feb. 1-7. From then through last week, the 2010 Census accounted for 0.4% of total coverage, and it ranked only 37th among top stories. The census had its highest share of coverage last week. Read more
Areas of the country that the Census Bureau has deemed “hard to count” have below-average response rates in the 2010 Census so far, according to a new analysis of participation rates by the Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York Graduate Center.
The bureau produced a score for every census tract in the country that predicts how hard it will be to get an accurate count of its residents. The score, which was based on housing, demographic and socioeconomic variables correlated with poor response in previous censuses, was intended to help the government and its partners target census-promotion efforts. It “seems to be a good predictor” of response rates, the analysis concludes.
The analysis also examines participation rates by geography and race, and reports that “a handful of counties already have exceeded their 2000 participation rates.”
Foreign-born Hispanics know more about the 2010 Census than their U.S.-born counterparts, and are more likely to say that they have participated or definitely will, according to a nationwide survey released today by the Pew Hispanic Center. Latinos who are immigrants also are more likely than U.S.-born Latinos to say the census is good for the Hispanic community.
The survey of Hispanic adults was taken March 16-25, which coincided with the arrival of 2010 Census forms in the mail at most U.S. households, as well as the arrival of a reminder postcard.
Overall, 85% of Hispanics say they already have sent in their 2010 Census forms or definitely plan to do so. That is an increase in the expressed willingness to participate among Hispanics from previous Pew Research Center surveys in early March and in January. Hispanics are considered a hard-to-reach group. In 2000, 69% of Hispanic households mailed back their census forms, compared with 79% of non-Hispanic householders.
The Pew Hispanic Center’s statistical profiles of Hispanics and foreign-born U.S. residents have been updated using 2008 data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. The profiles of economic and demographic characteristics include two topics not covered in previous versions of these profiles: Racial self-identification and health insurance status. Similar profiles are available for the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Other topics covered in the profiles include age, geographic dispersion, nativity, citizenship, origin, language proficiency, living arrangements, marital status, fertility, schooling, earnings, poverty and occupation.
The Census Bureau’s national map and statistics showing detailed daily participation rates in the 2010 Census is being picked up by journalists around the country in various ways.
USA Today used the data to construct its own look-up tool for participation rates. Here is another interactive map on AOL news, with a story summarizing national rate patterns.
The Houston Chronicle used the Census Bureau’s participation data to drill down to the neighborhood level, and concluded that homeowners in older parts of town are more likely to return their 2010 Census forms than renters in newer areas. One Michigan county has a low participation rate, but that can explained by its high share of vacation homes, according to story on Michigan Radio, the NPR affiliate in the state.
The Census Bureau has rolled out the first set of numbers showing the 2010 Census mail participation rate for communities, states and the nation. The mail participation rate is the share of households that mailed back the 2010 Census forms they received. In 2000, the final mail participation rate was 72%.
For the 2010 Census as of March 23, the rate is 16%, amounting to about 21 million forms. Census Bureau director Robert Groves said the counting effort was “off to a good start,” though he also said it is too early to discern patterns in the numbers for a variety of reasons.
For example, while some Midwestern states have the highest participation rates so far, Groves noted that some parts of that region had their census forms hand-delivered earlier than the rest of the country received them. (Most households had their forms delivered early last week.) Maryland’s early participation rate also is above-average (25%) as measured, but that rate may be boosted by the fact that a census processing center is located in the state so the returned forms are being counted more rapidly, he said.
The Census Bureau has not released data showing a comparable figure for the mail participation rate at this point in time during the 2000 Census. However, the Census Bureau’s evaluation of mail response rates in the 2000 Census and evaluation of mail return rates in the 2000 Census include charts showing day-by-day participation rates in March and April. As explained in this posting about the mail participation rate, that rate falls somewhere between the mail response rate and mail return rate.
The Census Bureau will report the mail participation rate for the nation, states and localities each weekday, based on data received by 1 p.m. EDT the previous day. The reports will end April 23, when the bureau will turn its attention to its non-response follow-up effort.